What is the effect of carbon pricing on inflation? This paper shows empirically that the consequences of the European Union's Emission Trading System (ETS) and national carbon taxation on inflation have been limited in the euro area, so far. This result is supported by analysis based on a panel...

We develop a bottom-up model of inflation in the euro area based on a set of augmented Phillips curves for seven sub-components of core inflation, and auxiliary regressions for non-core items. The disaggregated structure of the model improves on the forecasting performance of a standard...

We investigate whether the geographic determinants of growth extend to natural amenities. We combine data on spatial and temporal variation in the quality of over 5000 surf breaks globally with data on local economic performance, proxied by night-time lights. We document a strong association...

How do oil price movements affect sovereign spreads in an oil-dependent economy? I develop a stochastic general equilibrium model of an economy exposed to co-moving oil price and output processes, with endogenous sovereign default risk. The model explains a large proportion of business cycle...