This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two … turning points in the inflation cycle ex post and perform well in a simulated real-time exercise over the period from 2010 to …

, inflation and unemployment, we detect a wrong sign in the response of inflation to contractionary monetary policy shocks … 1999-2019, when the Federal Funds Rate and the Euro-Dollar exchange rate are added to the VAR model inflation shows … significant unemployment inflation trade-off emerges. These conclusions are confirmed by using industrial production instead of …

This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook …. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation … long-horizons. Overall, the NKPC is a useful tool for monitoring euro area inflation outlook. Thanks to its fast and light …

This paper documents, for the first time in a systematic manner, the link between labor cost and price inflation in the … and price inflation in the four major economies of the euro area and across the three main sectors. The dynamic …. Our results show that it is more likely that labor costs are passed on to price inflation with demand shocks than with …

In this paper, we study the fit and the predictive performance of the Phillips curve for euro area inflation with … regard to different inflation series, time periods and predictor variables, notably different global factors. We compare the … prices, global consumer inflation, global economic slack and foreign demand. We find that traditional global indicators such …

Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low inthe euro area. Based on an … augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that thisphenomenon-sometimes attributed to low global inflation-has been primarily … causedby a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. Thisfeature is shown to be …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

Is inflation persistence in the new EU Member States (NMS) comparable to that in the euro area countries? We argue that … show that due to frequent breaks in inflation time series in the NMS, parametric statistical measures assuming a constant …-varying mean leads to the reversal of this result and suggests similar or lower inflation persistence for the NMS compared to euro …