inflation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of subindices of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as opposed to … distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various model selection procedures are … component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months ahead …

The period of extraordinary volatility in euro area headline inflation starting in 2007 raised the question whether … from different models. The combination methods are evaluated for HICP headline inflation and HICP excluding food and energy … volatility in inflation. Overall, we find that, first, forecast combination helps hedge against bad forecast performance and …

The period of extraordinary volatility in euro area headline inflation starting in 2007 raised the question whether … for HICP headline inflation and HICP excluding food and energy. We investigate how forecast accuracy of the combination … including the global financial crisis with its extraordinary volatility in inflation. Overall, we find that forecast combination …

Firmly-anchored inflation expectations are widely viewed as playing a central role in the successful conduct of … monetary policy. This paper presents estimates of trend inflation, based on information contained in survey expectations, the … term structure of interest rates, and realized inflation rates. My application combines a variety of data sources at the …

money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of … contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating … in an all-out horserace. -- Information content of money ; inflation forecasting ; New Keynesian model ; DSGE model ; P …

This paper proposes a solution to the post-crisis Eurozone "missing inflation" puzzle. I demonstrate that following an … baseline framework in order to describe the post-crisis dynamics of inflation in the Eurozone.Subsequently, I show that the … initially subdued inflation, economic agents started to forecast inflation by extrapolating past inflation developments as …

wage and price dynamics. Recent empirical implementations stress the idea that these models link inflation to the behavior … declining inflation and labor shares in Euro area. In this paper, we show that with realistic parameters, the canonical Calvo …

Global inflation has surged to 7.5 percent in August 2022, from an average of 2.1 percent in the decade preceding the … factors to the post-pandemic rise in consumer price inflation, using monthly data and a battery of econometric methodologies … inflation dynamics throughout Europe, country-specific factors, including monetary and fiscal policy responses to the crisis …

Inflation persistence has been put forward as one of the potential reasons of divergence among euro area members. It … NMS went through, are applied. We emphasize that a time-varying mean models suggest similar or lower inflation persistence … due to frequent breaks in inflation time series in the NMS. Structural persistence measures show that backward …