productivity growth, the natural interest rate (r*), inflation trends and monetary transmission. While trade globalisation … by upward pressures, from the boost to global productivity associated with greater trade integration. Headline inflation …. Meanwhile, core inflation rates show a lower degree of commonality. Globalisation has made a rather modest contribution to the …

Global developments play an important role in domestic inflation rates. Previous literature has found that a … substantial amount of the variation in a large set of national inflation rates can be explained by a single global factor. However …, inflation volatility has been typically neglected, while it is clearly relevant both from a policy point of view and for …

treatment of globalization can help. CPI inflation has become more synchronized around the world since the 2008 crisis, but core … role for all the inflation measures, although globalization has caused some “flattening” of this relationship, especially …Inflation dynamics have been difficult to explain over the last decade. This paper explores if a more comprehensive …

In 2021-22, inflation in Europe soared to multidecade highs, consistently exceeding policymakers’ forecasts and … surprising with its wide cross-country dispersion. This paper analyzes the key drivers of the inflation surge in Europe and its …’s economies. Inflation is more sensitive to domestic slack and external price pressures in emerging European economies compared to …

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the …

This paper models inflation by combining the multi-country framework of one of its authors (Forbes) with the nonlinear … nonlinear when inflation is low, in which case excess economic slack has little effect on inflation. This finding is consistent … meaningful Phillips curve relationship between slack and inflation when slack is negative (i.e., when output is above long …

The relationship central to most inflation models, between slack and inflation, seems to have weakened. Do we need a …-cycle decomposition - to show that inflation models should more explicitly and comprehensively control for changes in the global economy … rates, and producer price competition can all significantly affect inflation, even after controlling for the standard …

inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multi-country, industry-level dataset that combines information on PPI and exchange … across a range of econometric tests, input-output linkages account for half of the global component of PPI inflation. We … preserves fat-tailed idiosyncratic shocks and thus leads to a fat-tailed distribution of inflation rates, i.e., periods of …

inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multi-country, industry-level dataset that combines information on PPI and exchange … across a range of econometric tests, input-output linkages account for half of the global component of PPI inflation. We … preserves fat-tailed idiosyncratic shocks and thus leads to a fat-tailed distribution of inflation rates, i.e., periods of …

From 2013 up to the launch of the ECB’s strategy review in January 2020, inflation in the euro area was low and over …-predicted. This low inflation during the years 2013-19 can be attributed to a combination of interconnected factors. Cyclical … developments account for a substantial share of the fall in underlying inflation, mainly in the first part of the low inflation …