Many sophisticated investors rely on scenario analysis to select a portfolio. These investors define prospective economic scenarios, assign probabilities to them, translate the scenarios into expected asset class returns, and select the portfolio with the highest expected return or expected...

The paper is focused on an ex-post investment performance analysis. Firstly, we create a suite of return, risk, return to risk and benchmark related measures with immediate real life applications in mind. We define and describe these measures and provide real data examples where appropriate....

In this paper we give a resume of the correlation concept that underlies the models for credit risk measurement, for the rating of structured products, for the pricing of (tranches of) structured products, and for Basel II capital charges. We discuss how securitization has changed the risk...

We examine in this paper the training and test set performance of several equity factor models with a dataset of 20 years of data, 1,200 stocks and 100 factors. First, we examine several models to forecast expected returns, which can be used as baselines for more complex models: linear...

Long term investments in bonds offer known returns, but with risks corresponding to defaults of the underwriters. The excess return for a risky bond is measured by the spread between the expected yield and the risk-free rate. Similarly, the risk can be expressed in the form of a default yield,...

This paper outlines a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy that takes signals from the credit markets and applies them to the stock market. A power model is built using the Russell 2000 equity index and the Bank of America/Merrill Lynch High Yield B index. This model is then used in a...

Ever since Harry Markowitz published his seminal paper on portfolio selection, investors have incorporated estimates of future volatilities and correlations into their asset allocation process. While portfolio construction methods continue to evolve, many investors continue to forecast...