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elevated uncertainty surrounding monetary policy, affects the inflation expectation formation process. Based on U.S. data since … the 1980s and a stochastic volatility-in-mean structural VAR model we find that monetary policy uncertainty reduces both … Unsicherheit über die Geldpolitik interpretiert wird, den Prozess der Inflationserwartungsbildung beeinflusst. Basierend auf US …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012489332
We find that macroeconomic uncertainty plays a significant role in U.S. monetary policy. First, we construct a measure … of uncertainty as felt by policymakers at the time of making their rate-setting decisions. This measure is derived from a … real-time, Bayesian estimation of a small monetary VAR with time-varying parameters. We use it to calculate the probability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014357029
We find that macroeconomic uncertainty plays a significant role in U.S. monetary policy. First, we construct a measure … of uncertainty as felt by policymakers at the time of making their rate-setting decisions. This measure is derived from a … real-time, Bayesian estimation of a small monetary VAR with time-varying parameters. We use it to calculate the probability …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014377382
This paper shows that uncertainty has an impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy shocks. As uncertainty … increases, so does the risk that a restrictive forward guidance shock will increase rather than decrease stock prices. This … suggest that uncertainty is an alternative approach to explain the phenomena previously known as "information shock" and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012542948
This paper examines the effects of monetary policy shocks on UK regional economic growth and dispersion in a novel Constrained Mixed Frequency Vector Autoregressive framework. Compared to a standard MFVAR, the model partially accounts for missing quarterly observations for regional growth by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372798
We explore empirically the transmission of U.S. financial and macroeconomic uncertainty to emerging market economies … (EMEs). We start by assuming that there are crucial differences between volatility and uncertainty, and between the latter … and its shocks. With the help of Bayesian vector auto-regressions, we first identify two measures of U.S. uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837420
We investigate the relationship between inflation uncertainty and monetary policy transmission in the U.S. economy … uncertainty and contributes to the reduced policy effectiveness. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011931106
estimation. The main results indicate that loan supply shocks have no significant effect on loan volumes and lending rates, as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011623896
setting, we find that US interest rate uncertainty not only drives local output and in ation volatility, but also causes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012418859
We estimate international spillover effects of US Quantitative Easing (QE) on emerging market economies (EMEs). Using a Bayesian VAR on monthly US macroeconomic and financial data, we first identify the US QE shock. The identified US QE shock is then used in a monthly Bayesian panel VAR for EMEs...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011786694