The standard interval forecasting task is modified, asking subjects to provide point predictions for future returns and assess the likelihood of fixed length intervals around their point estimates. The difference between the subjective likelihood estimates and the realized hit rate is advanced...

We evaluated the performance of multivariate models for forecasting Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall (ES) and Expectile Value at Risk (EVaR). We used Historical Simulation (HS), Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (DCC-GARCH) and copula...

The focus of this paper is on nowcasting and forecasting quarterly private consumption. The selection of real-time, monthly indicators focuses on standard (“hard”/“soft” indicators) and less-standard variables. Among the latter group we analyze: i) proxy indicators of economic and policy...

This paper investigates the prediction of Value-at-Risk (VaR) using option-implied information obtained by the maximum entropy method. The maximum entropy method provides an estimate of the risk-neutral distribution based on option prices. Besides commonly used implied volatility, we obtain...

The documented decline in the information content of earnings numbers has paralleled the emergence of disclosures, mostly voluntary, of industry-specific key performance indicators (KPIs). We find that the incremental information content conveyed by KPI news is significant for many KPIs, yet it...