This paper documents a new feature in Norges Bank's policy model NEMO, namely the ability to handle structural break points, i.e. shifts in one or more parameter values at a specific point in time. This property is introduced to enable the model to answer new policy-relevant questions, such as...

We investigate whether information from news articles could improve predictions of house price inflation at a short forecast horizon. The Covid-19 pandemic led to a shutdown of the Norwegian economy on March 12th 2020. Large economic fluctuations posed challenges for models used to forecast...

This paper describes the semi-structural model DORY used by Norges Bank as a link between raw data, sector experts and the core policy model NEMO. While the primary objective in NEMO is to analyse business cycle fluctuations and monetary policy, DORY is used to identify the underlying trends in...

In dieser Studie wird eine Methodik beschrieben, mit der die Entwicklung von Beschäftigung und Fachkräftemangel fünf Jahre in die Zukunft fortgeschrieben werden kann. Dabei wird angenommen, dass sich die empirisch feststellbaren Trends der jüngeren Vergangenheit unverändert fortsetzen. Die...

We nowcast world trade using machine learning, distinguishing between tree-based methods (random forest, gradient boosting) and their regression-based counterparts (macroeconomic random forest, linear gradient boosting). While much less used in the literature, the latter are found to outperform...

Die Medien, die Öffentlichkeit und die Politik gehen seit vielen Jahren von einer demografischen Entwicklung aus, die für Deutschland nichts Gutes verheißt. Die Alterung der Bevölkerung bedroht die sozialen Sicherungssysteme, führt zu Fachkräftemangel und zu verdorrten Landschaften - so...

In this paper, we propose a novel approach for the ex-ante assessment of tax reforms accounting for second-round effects, i.e. the dynamic scoring of tax reforms. We combine a microsimulation model for selected European countries with VAR estimates of macro responses and, exploiting a unique...