rationally adjust their beliefs about future productivity growth after the arrival of news. A downward revision of expectations …

This working paper comments on Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider's 'Bond Positions, Expectations, and the Yield …

Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been … almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume … expectations are rational This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense …

Since the foundational work of Keynes (1936) macroeconomists have emphasized the importance of agents' expectations in … empirical expectations data instead assuming all agents' expectations are rational This paper takes up the challenge of modeling … empirical household expectations data and shows that a simple standard model from epidemiology does a remarkably good job of …

of the CVAR are shown to be interpretable in terms of expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc …