Using a novel dataset that contains qualitative firm survey data on sales forecasts as well as balance-sheet data on realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a particular violation of the Full Information Rational...

This paper provides novel information on the propagation of the pandemic-induced real shock to firms' financial conditions. It uses firm-level survey data from end February to early April 2020 for a large sample of euro area SMEs and large firms. Firms' expectations on the availability of credit...

In recent years, the Indian Government has taken several policy initiatives to promote organic farming and organic food exports. Such measures are expected to enrich soil quality; attain sustainable development goals; ensure health and food safety for consumers; increase farmer's income and link...

Using a large set of firm-level survey data from the euro area since 2009, we analyse how firms use their information to form expectations on the availability of bank finance. Our results suggest that firms update what otherwise look like adaptive expectations on the basis of the latest...

Based on a new survey question in a large and representative panel of German firms, this paper introduces a novel measure of managers' subjective uncertainty. I compare this measure of business uncertainty to respondents' business expectations and document a strong negative relationship....

This study develops and estimates an index of the size of shadow economies in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, and analyses the factors that influence participation in the shadow sector. The index can be used to track shadow economies through time or across sectors and therefore is a useful tool...

Results from an independent survey of 36,795 grocery workers who are employed at 401 Kroger grocery stores in Colorado, Northern Washington and Southern California are described in this report. The survey received responses from 10,287 workers for a 28 percent response rate.Kroger is the only...

We use data from a large panel survey of UK firms to analyze the economic drivers of price setting since the start of the Covid pandemic. Inflation responded asymmetrically to movements in demand. This helps to explain why inflation did not fall much during the negative initial pandemic demand...

In this paper, we investigate the transmission channels of oil price shocks using a factorial survey. We confront CEOs and CFOs of a representative sample of firms with a hypothetical vignette in which the oil price rises exogenously above managers' baseline expectations. The managers then...

The Business Leaders' Pulse is a new online survey conducted each month. It is designed to provide timely and flexible input into the Bank of Canada's monetary policy decision making while also creating a platform to analyze business conditions and uncertainty. Since May 2021, the Bank has been...