Diagnostic expectations have emerged as an important departure from rational expectations in macroeconomics and finance. We present a first treatment of diagnostic expectations in linear macroeconomic models. To this end, we establish a strong additivity property for diagnostic expectations. The...

We offer a structural interpretation of survey measures of consumer confidence. Our approach is based on a simple forward-looking model of consumption. The model decomposes observed consumption uctuations in changes due to fundamentals, and changes due to temporary errors caused by noisy...

A literature debates the explanations for the cyclical properties of emerging markets using either trend shocks (Aguiar and Gopinath 2007) or financial frictions (Neumeyer and Perri 2004; Garcia-Cicco, Pancrazi, and Uribe 2010). We state a formal proposition that makes explicit the parametric...

This paper experimentally examines whether looking at other peopleś pricing decisions is a type of heuristic - a decisionmaking rule - that people use even when it is not applicable, as in the case of clearly private value goods. We find evidence that this indeed is the case - an individualś...