The authors examine how the co-movement between daily stock and Treasury bond returns varies with stock market uncertainty. They use the lagged implied volatility from equity index options to provide an objective, observable, and dynamic measure of stock market uncertainty. The authors find that...

The January Barometer states that the sign of the stock-markets returns in January can predict the subsequent 11-month stock-market return over February to December. Cooper et al. (2010) show that the best way to use the January Barometer is to be long following positive Januarys and invest in...