Hull, John; Lo, Andrew W.; Stein, Roger M. - 2017 - This Draft: 24 October 2017
We define long shots as investment projects with four features: (1) low probabilities of success; (2) long gestation lags before any cash flows are realized; (3) large required up-front investments; and (4) very large payoffs (relative to initial investment) in the unlikely event of success....