The paper analyzes the relationship between the Mexican peso/ USD exchange rate and the net positions of speculators in the peso futures market at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange within the microstructure approach to exchange rate determination. For the period January 5th, 1999-November 1st,...

This study focuses on those substantial changes that characterize the shift of Vietnam’s macroeconomic structures and evolution of micro-structural interaction over an important period of 1991-2008. The results show that these events are completely distinct in terms of (i) Economic nature; (ii)...

This paper assesses the influence of exchange rates volatility among Asian countries on intra-regional trade. Results indicate that exchange rates stabilization through regional monetary cooperation is an important stake, or even a prerequisite, to a deepening of trade integration of the region....

In this paper, we examine the monetary model of the Malawi Kwacha – U S dollar exchange rate during the current floating exchange rate system by applying several recent developments in the econometrics of unit roots and cointegration. Several interesting and important results are found. A...

Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive (ESTAR) model is widely adopted in the exchange rate study as its symmetrical distribution matches that of the symmetrical exchange rate adjustment behaviour. In contrast, another specification of STAR model, namely the LSTAR (logistic STAR) model is...

In this paper we propose a sequential testing approach for a structural change in the variance of a time series, which amounts to a procedure with a controlled asymptotic size as we repeat the test. Our approach builds on that taken in Chu, Stinchcombe and White (1996) for structural change in...

Exchange rates typically exhibit time-varying patterns in both means and variances. The histograms of such series indicate heavy tails. In this paper we construct models which enable a decision-maker to analyze the implications of such time series patterns for currency risk management. Our...

In this paper we consider forecasting daily exchange rate returns using neutral network models (NNs). Based on simulations, we argue (i) that neglected GARCH does not lead to spuriously successful NNs and (ii) that if there is nonlinearity in the conditional mean, NNs will exploit this for...

Seignorage is the capital gain generated by the creation of reserve money. The literature on seignorage shows that countries with highly developed and deep financial systems generate few resources relative to national income (or government revenue) from seignorage. By contrast, countries with...