This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates,...

This paper presents a model for Inflation Targeting under imperfect policy credibility. It modifies the conventional model in three ways: an endogenous policy credibility process, by which monetary policy can gain or lose credibility over time; non-linearities in the inflation equation and in the...

We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, and bank lending tightening affects the United States. To calculate confidence...

We extend the long literary tradition of Western analyses of Russian economic thought on Keynes. First, we update the story through transition and into the current period. Second, we survey representative contemporary literature on Keynes, identifying four manifestations: that by historians of...

We examine central monetary policy issues as identified in the United States popular press circa 1787. Rather than a study of the functioning of the colonial monetary system, we consider the thinking about the monetary system. Of particular interest is the use of (pseudo) moral arguments for and...

No individual in the history of public economics has been subject to more contentious discussion than Knut Wicksell – and perhaps no concept subjected to more diverse interpretation than Wicksell's unanimity rule. The story begins in 1896 with the publication of Wicksell's public finance...

Existing studies of how note-taking tools affect student learning typically find that students who choose to take notes on a computer perform worse on assessments than students who take notes on paper. To our knowledge, the literature has not disentangled whether this result is due to the...