This paper develops an open economy firm-heterogeneous model where the combination of market rigidities and exchange rate uncertainty acts like a barrier to trade and modifies a firm's optimal choice in terms of production and pricing. The existence of price and labor rigidities, coupled with...

We use inflation and income growth expectations from the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey to measure the subjective expected pass-through of inflation to income in the main euro area countries. By aggregating consumers' responses to probabilistic questions, we obtain significantly higher...

This paper develops an open economy firm-heterogeneous model where the combination of market rigidities and exchange rate uncertainty acts like a barrier to trade and modifies a firm's optimal choice in terms of production and pricing. The existence of price and labor rigidities, coupled with...

In 2011-2015 global trade volumes have systematically surprised on the downside, to a much larger extent than real GDP. We show that two key features of real trade flows --- their high volatility and their procyclicality --- determine a cyclicality of the income elasticity of trade. This...

In 2011-2015 global trade has disappointed, to a much larger extent than global GDP. We show that two key features of real trade flows - their high volatility and their procyclicality - determine a cyclicality of the income elasticity of trade. This property is such that when real GDP growth is...

Containment measures of COVID-19 have generated a chain of supply and demand shocks around the globe with heterogeneous fallout across industries and countries. We quantify their transmission via foreign trade with a focus on the euro area where deep firms integration within regional supply...

In a simplified theoretical framework we model the strategic interactions between OPEC and non-OPEC producers and the implications for the global oil market. Depending on market conditions, OPEC may find it optimal to act either as a monopolist on the residual demand curve, to move supply...

Beside large capital flows, euro area financial centres feature important and growing trade surpluses. We investigate the composition of their gross trade flows and disentangle (i) domestic and foreign production content that is (ii) directly traded with final absorbing economies or embedded in...

En un marco teórico simplificado, modelizamos las interacciones estratégicas entre los productores de la OPEP y los no pertenecientes a la OPEP y sus implicaciones para el mercado global de petróleo. Dependiendo de las condiciones del mercado, la OPEP puede considerar óptimo actuar como...