Rhode, Paul W.; Strumpf, Koleman S. - In: Journal of Economic Perspectives 18 (2004) 2, pp. 127-141
This paper analyzes the large and often well-organized markets for betting on U.S. presidential elections that operated between 1868 and 1940. Four main points are addressed. First, we show that the market did a remarkable job forecasting elections in an era before scientific polling. Second,...