In this paper, we forecast excess stock returns of S&P 500 index from January 1997 to December 2012 using both well-known traditional macroeconomic indicators and oil market variables. Based on a dynamic model selection approach, we find that the forecasting accuracy can be improved after adding...

In competitive product markets, repeated interaction among producers with similar economic characteristics would be expected to result in convergence of their behaviors. If convergence does not occur, it raises fundamental questions related to the sustainability of heterogeneous competitive...

This paper contributes to the debate on the role of oil prices in predicting stock returns. The novelty of the paper is that it considers monthly time-series historical data that span over 150years (1859:10–2013:12) and applies a predictive regression model that accommodates three salient...

Using the business cycle indicators and the aggregate stock market data, this paper examines the degree of positive feedback trading in the G-7 economies and the extent to which such behaviour varies across business cycle. The evidence suggests that there is a significant positive feedback...

The asymptotic distributions of the maximum likelihood estimator of the persistence parameter are developed in a linear diffusion model under three sampling schemes, long-span, in-fill and double. Simulations suggest that the in-fill asymptotic distribution gives a more accurate approximation to...

This paper proposes an empirical study of the shape of recoveries in financial markets from a bounce-back augmented Markov Switching model. This model is estimated for monthly stock market returns data of five developed countries for the post-1970 period. The presence and shape of the...

Even before the events of the past few years, economists and policy makers were musing about the apparent contradiction between globalization, as it is generally understood, and the seemingly different paths in overall economic activity taken by the emerging and more mature economies of the...

The empirical growth literature gives no clear indication as to how democracy impacts growth; there is evidence of both positive and negative effects and also of no direct link in democracy and growth nexus. In this study an attempt has been made to resolve this controversy by putting this...

We analyse trade between countries of the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance in Eastern Europe between 1950 and 1990. Despite central planning of the CMEA, we show that trade could be explained by standard demand factors surprisingly well. We document that the oil price crisis had several...

Employees’ commitment is very important for an organization. Once the employees’ commitments reduce, the organization could face the difficulty in retaining the employees. The purpose of this study is to examine whether there is significant relationship between organizational commitment and...