This paper develops a framework to study the management of international reserves when a government faces the risk of a rollover crisis. In the model, it is optimal for the government to reduce its vulnerability by initially lowering debt, and then increasing both debt and reserves as it...

In this paper we empirically explore the relationship between debt and output in a panel of 72 countries over the period 1970-2014 using a vector autoregression (VAR). We document two puzzling empirical findings that contrast with what is predicted by a standard small open economy model by...

Episodes of debt accumulation have been a recurrent feature of the global economy over the past fifty years. Since 2010, emerging and developing economies have experienced another wave of historically large and rapid debt accumulation. Similar past debt buildups have often ended in widespread...

Emerging countries that have defaulted on their debt repayment obligations in the past are more likely to default again in the future than are non-defaulters even with the same external debt-to-GDP ratio. These countries actually have repeated defaults or restructurings in short periods. This...

Sovereign debt crises involve debt restructurings characterized by a mix of face-value haircuts and maturity extensions. The prevalence of maturity extensions has been hard to reconcile with economic theory. We develop a model of endogenous debt restructuring that captures key facts of sovereign...

The wave of sovereign defaults in the early 1980s and the string of debt crises in subsequent decades have fostered proposals involving policy interventions in sovereign debt restructurings. The global financial crisis and the recent global pandemic have further reignited this discussion among...

Using data from 40 nations, we obtain new stylized facts regarding the impact of political leanings of the ruling government on sovereign debt yields and fiscal policy. Left-wing governments' yields are 166 basis points higher and 23% more volatile than yields of right-wing governments....

This paper analyzes different government debt relief programs in the European Monetary Union. I build a model and study different options ranging from debt relief to the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). The analysis reveals the following: First, patient countries repay debt, while impatient...