This paper assesses the vulnerability of Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) economies to external crises. It shows that while the average LAC economy has made significant strides to reduce vulnerability to crises to its historical minimum, there is still considerable room for improvement,...

We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or "haircuts". Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the...

This paper explores the empirical determinants of external crises on a world panel dataset of 62 countries over the fifty-year period 1970-2019 and estimates their risk trade-offs with the aim of informing macrofinancial prudential policies. The determinants include countries' external balance...

We explore the time-varying conditional correlations of the Sovereing CDS spread returns for Germany, France, China and Japan against USA. We employ a cDCC-AR-FIGARCH model in order to capture potential contagion effects between the markets during the 2011-2018 post global financial crisis....

The purpose of this paper is to investigate if the St Louis Federal Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) can be used to predict the EUR/USD, AUD/USD and CAD/USD. Building on Gurrib (2018) who proposed a unified financial condition index and tested the predictability of the index on major foreign...

This paper assesses the vulnerability of Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) economies to external crises. It shows that while the average LAC economy has made significant strides to reduce vulnerability to crises to its historical minimum, there is still considerable room for improvement,...

This paper explores the empirical determinants of external crises on a world panel dataset of 62 countries over the fifty-year period 1970-2019 and estimates their risk trade-offs with the aim of informing macrofinancial prudential policies. The determinants include countries' external balance...

In contrast to the past, many emerging countries faced the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 with more solid financial positions and the required credibility and capacity to conduct countercyclical policies. This allowed them to better cope with the global downturn and thus behave more...

This paper investigates the spillover of financial crises by studying the dynamics of correlation between eleven Asian and six Latin American stock markets vis-¨¤-vis the US stock market. A regional factor that drives common movements of stock markets in each region is identified for the...

This paper studies the spread of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009 from the financial sector to the real economy by examining ten sectors in 25 major developed and emerging stock markets. The analysis tests different channels of financial contagion across countries and sectors and finds...