This paper provides new indices of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The indices measure the dispersion of forecasts that results from parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Relying on...

We propose an approach for jointly measuring global macroeconomic uncertainty and bilateral spillovers of uncertainty between countries using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. Over the period 2000Q1-2020Q4, our global index is able to summarize a variety of uncertainty measures, such...

I explore how and and to what extent policy uncertainty can account for the observed long-run cross-country differences in capital price and levels of aggregate investment and output. I present a model economy where the industry-level policy-related investment cost is uncertain. Holding the...

We investigate the influence of US quality of political signals (USQPOLS) on advanced and emerging markets using the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model that also accommodates the macroeconomic conditions of the shock recipient markets. We show an immediate negative impact on the equity...