real economic activity growth, in line with a risk shock. Conversely, a certainty shock (a shock strongly decreasing …'s (2009) two identification steps into one. I find that an uncertainty shock widens the conditional distribution of future … that the two shocks are different shocks. Each shock impacts the real economy uniquely. I support this with the underlying …

increases, so does the risk that a restrictive forward guidance shock will increase rather than decrease stock prices. This … suggest that uncertainty is an alternative approach to explain the phenomena previously known as "information shock" and …