Previous research has emphasized the portfolio balance effects of Federal Reserve bond purchases, in which a reduced bond supply lowers term premia. In contrast, we find that such purchases have important signaling effects that lower expected future short-term interest rates. Our evidence comes...

In the conduct of monetary policy, there exists a risk-return trade-off between financial conditions and financial stability, which complements monetary policy’s traditional trade-off between inflation and real activity. The trade-off exists even if monetary policy does not target financial...

This paper analyzes the Japanese government bond (JGB) yield curve using the Black-Gorovoi-Linetsky (BGL) model of interest rates as options with a view to monitoring the JGB market expectations about the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) zero interest rate policy (ZIRP). Main findings are as follows....

We estimate a two-country open economy version of the New Keynesian DSGE model for the U.S. and the Euro area, using Bayesian techniques that allow for both determinacy and indeterminacy of the equilibrium. Our empirical analysis shows that the worldwide equilibrium is indeterminate due to a...

This paper integrates an asset price bubble and agency costs in firms' price-setting decisions into a monetary DSGE framework. Amplified by nominal wage rigidities, an asset price bubble causes an inefficiently excessive boom. Inflation, however, remains moderate in the boom, because a loosening...

Recent empirical literature suggests that the degree of nominal rigidities varies over monetary policy regimes. This implies that monetary policy analysis with exogenously given nominal rigidities is subject to the Lucas critique. In a Calvo-style sticky price model, we endogenize nominal...

The literature provides evidence that term spreads help predict output growth, inflation, and interest rates. This paper integrates and explains these predictability results by using an affine term structure model with observable macroeconomic factors for U.S. data. The results suggest that...

Recent studies show that the Taylor rule possesses desirable properties in terms of generating determinacy and E-stability of rational expectations equilibria under sticky prices. This paper examines whether this policy rule retains these properties within a discrete-time...

We study the term structure of interest rates and monetary policy in Japan empirically, using a macro-finance model. In particular, we investigate whether or not Japan's low long-term interest rates can be explained with economic rationality by taking into account some key features of the...

Equilibrium nominal interest rates are useful indicators for both monetary policy authorities and market players. However, there are few studies which estimate Japan's equilibrium rate because of its persistent low interest rate. We overcome this challenge by using survey forecasts of interest...