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inflation by using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model, which is compared to a benchmark linear ARDL one. Using monthly data from the … and OPU shocks are larger when allowing for asymmetries in the context of the NARDL framework. Further, EPU shocks …, especially negative ones, have a stronger impact on inflation than OPU ones and capture some of the monetary policy uncertainty …
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This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MSVAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...
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This study examines the monetary policy effectiveness of five major Asian countries (China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, and South Korea) using a quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) model-based spillover estimation approach of Balcilar et al. (2020b) at different quantile paths. To do this, we...
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