Do input-output linkages of intermediate products affect the spread of sectoral shocks at the aggregate level in Lithuania, a small and open economy? What role does openness play in the empirical exercise? We answer these questions by: (i) constructing the Lithuanian input-output transactions...

In this paper, we offer a unique firm-level view of the empirical regularities underlying the evolution of the Lithuanian economy over the period of 2000-2014. Employing a novel dataset, we investigate key distributional moments of real and financial variables of Lithuanian firms. We focus in...

Forecasting economic activity during an invasion is a nontrivial exercise. The lack of timely statistical data and the expected nonlinear effect of military action challenge the use of established nowcasting and shortterm forecasting methodologies. In a recent study (Constantinescu (2023b)), I...

This paper presents a selected review of what the literature discusses in terms of modelling and forecasting house prices. In particular, it distils fundamental and “other” determinants of house prices used in economic models and identifies the most commonly used econometric approaches to...

Was the US economy overheating already prior to 1929? Could this have been detected in real-time? Did the housing boom and bust of mid 1920s play the same role as it did in 2007? Results of our Bayesian macro-econometric US output trend-gap decomposition are presented in the tradition of...