Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 725,905
Cover Image
Sparse warcasting
Constantinescu, Mihnea - 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014316914
Cover Image
Sparse warcasting
Constantinescu, Mihnea - 2023
expected nonlinear effect of military action challenge the use of established nowcasting and shortterm forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014476136
Cover Image
Targeted transformations for macroeconomic forecasting
Daniele, Maurizio; Kronenberg, Philipp; Reinicke, Tim - 2024
The crisis periods of the past decades have highlighted the difficulty of forecasting economic indicators due to increased non-linearity and rapidly changing dynamics. To address this challenge, we introduce the Transform-Sparsify-Forecast (TSF) framework. The TSF framework first applies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014545317
Cover Image
Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle
Reif, Magnus - 2019
Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125
Cover Image
Tracking economic activity with alternative high-frequency data
Eckert, Florian; Kronenberg, Philipp; Mikosch, Heiner; … - 2020
Most macroeconomic indicators failed to capture the sharp economic fluctuations during the Corona crisis in a timely manner. Instead, alternative high-frequency data have been used, aiming to monitor the economic situation. However, these data are often only loosely related to the business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012395297
Cover Image
Nowcasting real GDP growth : comparison between old and new EU countries
Kočenda, Evžen; Poghosyan, Karen - 2020
We analyze the performance of a broad range of nowcasting and short-term forecasting models for a representative set of … indicators that come from a comparable set of identical data. We show that nowcasting works well for the new EU countries because … nowcasting is on average somewhat larger. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012172202
Cover Image
Business cycle dating and forecasting with real-time Swiss GDP data
Glocker, Christian; Wegmüller, Philipp - 2017
We develop a small-scale dynamic factor model for the Swiss economy based on an appropriately selected set of indicators. The resulting business cycle factor is in striking accordance with historical Swiss business cycle fluctuations. Our proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011732586
Cover Image
Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model
Carstensen, Kai; Heinrich, Markus; Reif, Magnus; … - 2019
We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012098161
Cover Image
Forecasting U.S. Economic Growth in Downturns Using Cross-Country Data
Lyu, Yifei - 2020
To examine whether including economic data on other countries could improve the forecast of U.S. GDP growth, we construct a large data set of 77 countries representing over 90 percent of global GDP. Our benchmark model is a dynamic factor model using U.S. data only, which we extend to include...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823435
Cover Image
Using survey information for improving the density nowcasting of US GDP with a focus on predictive performance during Covid-19 pandemic
Çakmaklı, Cem; Demircan, Hamza - 2020
We provide a methodology that efficiently combines the statistical models of nowcasting with the survey information for … improving the (density) nowcasting of US real GDP. Specifically, we use the conventional dynamic factor model together with a … over the baseline model for nowcasting GDP. While the mean survey predictions deliver valuable information during extreme …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012295853