The "global saving glut" (GSG) hypothesis argues that the surge in capital inflows from emerging market economies to the United States led to significant declines in long-term interest rates in the United States and other industrial economies. In turn, these lower interest rates, when combined...

In this paper, we examine the prospects for, and implications of, the dollar's continued pivotal role in the international financial system. We find, first, that the dollar remains dominant by a wide margin and will likely retain its dominance for the foreseeable future-none of the other...

This note develops an econometric model of inflation dynamics to assess recent developments. We find that most of the rapid decline in price pressures achieved in 2023 owes to the normalization of supply chains. With supply-chain disruptions now largely resolved, future progress toward...

The electoral campaign of Argentina's new president Javier Milei has revived the debate over the pros and cons of dollarization. Critics argue that dollarizing would force Argentina to import the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, regardless of whether the Fed's policies are appropriate for...