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McAdam, Peter - 2003

There has been much discussion of the differences in macroeconomic performance and prospects between the US, Japan and the euro area. Using Markov-switching techniques, in this paper we identify and compare specifically their major business-cycle features and examine the case for a common...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635889

On the indeterminacy of determinacy and indeterminacy

Beyer, Andreas; Farmer, Roger E. A. - 2003

A number of authors have attemted to test whether the U.S. economy is in a determinate or an indeterminate equilibrium. We argue that to answer this question, one must be impose a priori restrictions on lag length that cannot be tested. We provide examples of two economic models. Model 1...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635896

Forecasting real GDP

Brand, Claus; Reimers, Hans-Eggert; Seitz, Franz - 2003

This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s and reviews theoretical arguments on why real narrow money should help predict real GDP. We find that, unlike in the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009635922

On the Macroeconomic Determinants of the Long-Term Oil-Stock Correlation

Conrad, Christian; Loch, Karin; Rittler, Daniel - 2012

Using a modified DCC-MIDAS specification, we endogenize the long-term correlation between crude oil and stock price returns with respect to the stance of the U.S. macroeconomy. We find that variables which contain information on current and future economic activity are helpful predictors for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011422237

Credit supply and the housing boom

Justiniano, Alejandro; Primiceri, Giorgio E.; … - 2014

The housing boom that preceded the Great Recession was due to an increase in credit supply driven by looser lending constraints in the mortgage market. This view on the fundamental drivers of the boom is consistent with four empirical observations: the unprecedented rise in home prices and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011460670

Does Labor Supply Matter During a Recession? Evidence from the Seasonal Cycle

Mulligan, Casey B. - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013342516

Adjusting Measures of Economic Output for Health: Is the Business Cycle Countercyclical?

Egan, Mark L.; Mulligan, Casey B.; Philipson, Tomas J. - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013342519

Gasspeicher voll - Konjunkturaussichten weniger trüb

Drygalla, Andrej; Exß, Franziska; Heinisch, Katja; … - In: Konjunktur aktuell 11 (2023) 1, pp. 1-34

Angebotsseite an Bedeutung verlieren. Alles in allem bleibt die internationale Konjunktur im Jahr 2023 schwach, mit einem … stagnativen ersten Halbjahr im Euroraum und einer mil- den Rezession im zweiten Halbjahr in den USA. Der im vergangenen Herbst … dämpfenden Wirkungen des Energiepreisschocks nachlassen, belebt sich die Konjunktur wieder. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014285049

Belebung in Dienstleistungsbranchen, aber zunächst weiter schwache Industriekonjunktur

Drygalla, Andrej; Exß, Franziska; Heinisch, Katja; … - In: Konjunktur aktuell 11 (2023) 2, pp. 36-65

Konjunktur im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe bleibt aber schwach. Hohe Inflation und gestiegene Leitzinsen dämpfen die Konjunktur in den …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014316041

Export und privater Konsum schwach: Deutschland wartet auf den Aufschwung

Drygalla, Andrej; Exß, Franziska; Heinisch, Katja; … - In: Konjunktur aktuell 11 (2023) 4, pp. 100-140

deutliche Rückgang der Inflationsraten in den USA und im Euroraum hat die Wahrscheinlichkeit erhöht, dass beide Zentralbanken …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014447245