This paper assesses time variation in monetary policy rules by applying a Time-Varying Parameter Generalised Methods of Moments (TVP-GMM) framework. Using monthly data until December 2022 for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) and five countries...

This paper applies a recently developed method (Inoue and Rossi, 2021) to estimate functional inflation expectations and ex-ante real interest rate shocks, and then examines their macroeconomic effects in the context of a Functional Vector Autoregressive model with exogenous variables...

This paper assesses time variation in monetary policy rules by applying a Time-Varying Parameter Generalised Methods of Moments (TVP-GMM) framework. Using monthly data until December 2022 for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) and five countries...

This paper uses the endogenous regime switching model with dynamic feedback and interactions developed by Chang et al. (2023) to estimate global food price mean and volatility indicators, the latter measuring uncertainty and risk in the global food market. Both are then included in structural...

This paper investigates the inflation effects of oil price expectations shocks constructed as functional shocks, i.e. as shifts in the entire oil futures term structure (both standard and risk-adjusted). The latter are then included in a vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables...

The recent Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted global supply chains and led to large increases in shipping costs. This paper first provides shipping cost mean and uncertainty measures by using the endogenous regime switching model with dynamic feedback and interactions developed by Chang et al....

This paper examines the asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and oil price uncertainty (OPU) on inflation by using a Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model, which is compared to a benchmark linear ARDL one. Using monthly data from the 1990s until August 2022 for a number of developed and...