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Using quarterly data from 1970-1987 we estimate a simple econometric model in which inflation and the money supply are … jointly determined and in which expectations of inflation are rational, or forward-looking. The model is estimated using the … recently developed `cointegration' principle in econometrics. The main findings are that Israeli inflation reflected monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791406
consequences of cuts in public spending for the rate of inflation. Monetary financing is viewed as the residual financing mode … in public consumption spending will lower the inflation rate in the revenue-efficient region of the seigniorage Laffer … curve. When there are cuts in public sector capital formation, the inflation rate can rise even in the seigniorage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791419
Dynamic models in which agents' behaviour depends on expectations of future prices or other endogenous variables can have steady states that are stationary equilibria for a wide variety of expectations rules, including rational expectations. When there are multiple steady states, stability is a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791468
smoothness, stability, and forecasting) for core inflation, we turn to the discussion of real-time diagnosis for a low inflation … inflation through the identification of turning points and structural shocks. After establishing the sought-after properties (of … environment. This is done in the context of weekly estimates of Swiss inflation. The intra-monthly estimates for core inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791484
inflation and a permanent reduction in the level of unemployment. In short, we derive a microfounded long-run downward …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791529
This paper explores the hypothesis that the non-German members of the European Monetary System (EMS) draw benefits from the system because of the monetary discipline that it imposes upon them. The hypothesis explains the dominant position of Germany in the EMS and is consistent with the evidence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791579
precommit. This implies that a variation of the policy maker's degree of inflation aversion does not have a systematic effect on … maker's inflation aversion may have a systematic effect on equilibrium employment even if agents have rational expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791594
The Paper presents a model in which the exogenous money supply causes changes in the inflation rate and the output … growth rate. While inflation and growth rate changes occur simultaneously, the inflation acts as a tax on the return to human … the income velocity of money that can break the otherwise stable relation between money, inflation, and output growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791637
It is often argued that the EMS is an effective disciplinary device for inflation-prone countries in the EEC, since it …-makers in high-inflation countries: the reason is that not only it attaches an extra penalty to inflation (in terms of … inflationary finance, we find that they will always prefer EMS membership. When the policy-maker needs revenue from the inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791653
The purpose of this paper is to provide a simple model which illuminates the interdependence between primary commodity prices and the rest of the economy. We study the role of commodity prices in a disinflation program, the role of commodity prices in determining whether or not a fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791762