This paper discusses the forecasting performance of alternative factor models based on a large panel of quarterly time … the subspace factor model rank highest in terms of forecast accuracy in most cases. However, neither of the dynamic factor … models can provide better forecasts than the static model over all forecast horizons and different specifications of the …

forecast targeting" to more general certainty non-equivalence and "distribution forecast targeting." …

The paper develops an oil price forecasting technique which is based on the present value model of rational commodity … pricing. The approach suggests shifting the forecasting problem to the marginal convenience yield which can be derived from … the cost-of-carry relationship. In a recursive out-of-sample analysis, forecast accuracy at horizons within one year is …

in-sample properties of the estimator in real-time environments and methods for out-of-sample forecasting. As an … empirical application, we estimate monthly German GDP in real-time, discuss the nowcast and forecast accuracy of the model and … the role of revisions. Furthermore, we assess the contribution of timely monthly data to the forecast performance. …

This paper addresses the relative importance of monetary indicators for forecasting inflation in the euro area in a … empirical question whether the group of monetary variables is relevant for forecasting euro area inflation. In our application … and non-monetary indicators together play an important role for forecasting inflation, whereas the isolated information …

macroeconometric model of the Bundesbank for Germany. Forecast intervals that integrate judgement on risk and uncertainty are obtained. …

The main challenge of forecasting credit default risk in loan portfolios is forecasting the default probabilities and …

forecasting tool. We use a nonparametric test of the densities that is based on the inverse probability functions and is modified … that the densities based on the Americanoption markets for foreign exchange do quite well for the forecasting period over …