statistics in forecasting inflation has often been relegated to simple univariate or Phillips curve approaches, thus limiting … consumption expenditures) across our set of monthly and quarterly BVARs. Although the inflation forecasting improvements are …In this paper we investigate the forecasting performance of the median Consumer Price Index (CPI) in a variety of …

standard OLS VAR and Bayesian VAR models, in forecasting inflation in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Although the presented models are … significant improvement in forecasting performance at all forecast horizons when Bayesian techniques, which incorporate …The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of some leading univariate and multivariate models: ARIMA, the …

real economy is state-dependent and financial indicators may turn out to be useful particularly in forecasting "tail …" macroeconomic events. We examine this conjecture by studying Bayesian predictive distributions for output growth and inflation in …