This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used...

Since September 2004, Insee has published the results of its business survey in the services sector on a monthly basis together with a synthetic indicator. This indicator is extracted from both monthly and quarterly balances of opinion derived from the survey. The methodological framework is...

The global economy is in the midst of its deepest and most widespread recession since WW II. The euro-area economy has not been spared. It has been in recession since the second quarter of 2008 with the fall in real GDP accelerating to 2.5% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) by the first quarter of this...

This Economic Brief looks at past evidence as to what extent donors' economic cycles have an effect on their aid budgets. It generally finds only a weak correlation of economic growth and aid of OECD donors between 1971 and 2008, and aid was reduced in only about half of all episodes of deep or...

The present global financial crisis is the deepest since the Great Depression of the 1930s. It has impacted severely on the European economy. It has forced policy-makers in the EU and elsewhere to respond with exceptional measures to counter the depressive effects of the crisis. The crisis has...

The 1937/38 recession in the United States is often quoted as a warning against premature exits from monetary and fiscal stimulus. The presumption is that the 1937/38 recession was indeed due to such a premature exit. This Economic Brief presents evidence that goes against this view. The 1937/38...

The economies of Mexico and Brazil have many important commonalities, but Brazil's economy has, so far, shown more resilience to global economic crisis, which had its epicentre in Mexico's Northern neighbour. In this Economic Brief the performances of the Brazilian and Mexican economies are...

The 11th Brussels Economic Forum, held on 25-26 May 2010, took place against a background of the Greek debt crisis and keen debate on the future of Europe's economic governance. In that sense it took place at the ideal moment. Participants debated the causes and consequences of the crisis, and...

This brief reviews the main economic developments since transition in the three Baltic economies and highlights challenges for the future. Although the three economies went, in an almost synchronous fashion, through similar stages of catching up and financial convergence-driven booms and busts,...

This brief presents several stylised scenarios to explore the potential macroeconomic benefits of the Europe 2020 strategy. An essential part of Europe 2020 consists of reforms with a medium- to long-term horizon that focus on promoting the sustainability of public finances, enhancing potential...