Most of the discussion about fiscal stimulus focuses on the multiplier of government spending on impact. In this paper … we shift the focus to the multiplier at the end, i.e. to the period in which a deficit spending program terminates. We … multiplier turns negative before spending expires. This means that aggregate output at the time of expiry of fiscal stimulus is …

discussion has often been implicitly framed in terms of the size of the potential multiplier. Contributing to the debate, this … output, with a short-run multiplier value around unity since early 2000. There is also little evidence of private consumption …

The output multiplier turns negative before a deficit spending program expires. We show the generality of this … impact multiplier, and the scale and duration of the stimulus program. We also show that results are quantitatively very … stimulus expires. -- Fiscal stimulus ; government spending ; output multiplier ; economic recovery …

The output multiplier turns negative before a deficit spending program expires. We show the generality of this … impact multiplier, and the scale and duration of the stimulus program. We also show that results are quantitatively very …

Mark-up cyclical behaviour is relevant in determining the size of government spending multiplier on output. While …