The Covid-19 epidemic affected the ability of traditional forecasting models to produce reliable scenarios for the evolution of economic activity. We combine macroeconomic variables with epidemiological indicators to account for the Covid-19 shock and predict the short-term evolution of Italian...

We analyse the pass-through of exchange rates to prices in small, open, commodity-exporting economies, taking Canada as a case study. We estimate pass-through on a wide cross-section of disaggregated import, producer, and consumer prices, conditional on commodity shocks that explain a major...

We estimate the response of domestic inflation to a US interest rate shock in a sample of 27 emerging economies, using local projection methods. Our results point out that the sign of the inflation response crucially depends on the monetary policy framework: after a US monetary policy...

Motivated by the events of the Great Recession, we estimate a time-varying structural VAR model with labor market variables to analyze the effects of a financial shock, focusing on the US. Our results point out that a tightening of financial conditions is highly detrimental for the labor market....

Global developments play an important role in domestic inflation rates. Previous literature has found that a substantial amount of the variation in a large set of national inflation rates can be explained by a single global factor. However, inflation volatility has been typically neglected,...