This paper describes a new approach to pricing government deposit guarantees that uses techniques of stochastic process switching employed in the recent literature on exchange rate determination. Our model avoids inconsistent assumptions about the information available to investors and the...

This paper assesses the extent to which crashes in emerging market currencies are predictable using simple logit models based on lagged macroeconomic and financial data. To evaluate our model, we calculate trading strategies in which an investor goes long or short in the currency depending on...

This paper examines the implications of European fiscal harmonization for the French economy using a general equilibrium model. The latter extends the overlapping generations simulation model of Auerbach and Kotlikoff in three ways. A well-developed external sector is included. Households face...