's capacity to explain inflation outcomes, using the local projection method. Our analysis shows that recent inflationary … pressures are closely related to the behavior of the GSCPI, especially at the level of producer price inflation in the United …

We study the behavior of U.S. consumers' inflation expectations during the high inflation period of 2021-22 using data … from the Survey of Consumer Expectations. Short- and, to a lesser extent, mediumterm inflation expectations rose as … inflation surged in 2021. Disagreement and uncertainty about future inflation increased significantly. Then, in 2022, even as …

do not force a central bank to tolerate higher inflation, but may generate a tradeoff between the central bank …'s objectives for inflation and real activity. The presence and size of this tradeoff depends on how flexible prices are in the …

We document the real-time forecasting performance for output and inflation of the New York Fed dynamic stochastic …

Does the effect of monetary policy depend on the prevailing level of inflation? In order to answer this question, we … construct a parsimonious nonlinear time series model that allows for inflation regimes. We find that the effects of monetary … policy are markedly different when year-over-year inflation exceeds 5.5 percent. Below this threshold, changes in monetary …

We estimate a multi-country, multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020 …-23 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices … and wages. We further measure the relative importance of different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time …

, ut*, in the aftermath of the pandemic and characterize its implications for inflation dynamics. While the bulk of the … inflation surge is attributed to temporary supply factors, we also find an important role for current and expected negative …

, in a decline in aggregate demand growth and inflation, with limited effects on output growth. On the other hand, higher … variability of monetary shocks results, on average, in an increase in inflation and a decline in output growth. These results …

We specify an empirical model of US inflation which has the dynamics of wage and price setting at its core. In the … studies of pandemic-era inflation have confirmed that shocks to energy prices were important, but have not included imported … inflation more broadly. Estimation and simulation results indicate that wage growth was strongly affected early in the pandemic …