Adequate modeling of the seasonal structure of consumer prices is essential for inflation forecasting. This paper … suggests a new econometric approach for jointly determining inflation forecasts and monetary policy stances, particularly where … money growth and implied exchange rate paths along with a jointly determined inflation forecast. The approach uses two broad …

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION -- II. INFLATION AND MONETARY POLICY IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC -- III. SEASONAL … CHARACTERISTICS OF CONSUMER PRICES -- IV. MODELING AND FORECASTING INFLATION -- V. CONCLUDING REMARKS -- References -- Appendix …

Inflation expectations estimates are among the most important indicators used, in particular when implementing the … Taylor rule. These estimates include primarily (1) break even inflation for the next 12 months, calculated from the prices of …