Fiscal policymakers are expected to conduct countercyclical policies to mitigate cyclical fluctuations of output, but the assessment of cyclical conditions in real time is subject to considerable uncertainty. They face two types of risk: (i) launching discretionary measures to support or dampen...

Infrastructure construction is one of the basic driving forces of social and economic development. Since 1978, the construction of infrastructure in the People's Republic of China (PRC) has experienced rapid development, which has given a strong impetus to the PRC's modernization. But behind the...

Commodity prices are an important driver of fiscal policy and the business cycle in many developing economies. We analyze a dynamic stochastic small-open-economy model of sovereign default, featuring endogenous fiscal policy and stochastic commodity revenues. The model accounts for a positive...