We explore the term structures of claims to a variety of cash flows: U.S. government bonds (claims to dollars), foreign government bonds (claims to foreign currency), inflation-adjusted bonds (claims to the price index), and equity (claims to future equity indexes or dividends). Average term...

In diesem Beitrag zeigen wir, dass theoretische und technologische Aussagensysteme zweieigenständige Forschungszweige darstellen und damit die Notwendigkeit erwächst, eineeigene Methodologie technologischer Aussagensysteme zu entwerfen. Wir stellen ersteAnsatzpunkte vor, wie eine solche...

We examine the short- and medium-term effects of announcements of changes in anti-crime policies in the distant future (news shocks) and provide a first extension of the analysis to cases where the announced policy changes may not be realized in the end (noise shocks). We further innovate by...

Consider a repeated principal-agent setting with verifiable effort and an extra profit that can materialize only if the agent is talented. The agent is overconfident and updates beliefs using Bayes’ rule. The agent's principal-expected compensation decreases over time until high talent...