Classic value investing à la Graham & Dodd (Security analysis: The classic, McGrawHill, New York, 1934) focuses on selecting stocks that seem cheap relative to their intrinsic value and fundamental quality. We use Bayesian inference to account for a large amount of uncertainty within intrinsic...

Classic value investing à la Graham & Dodd (1934) focuses on selecting stocks that seem cheap relative to their intrinsic value and fundamental quality. We use Bayesian inference to account for the large amount of uncertainty within intrinsic value estimation. We find that an...

This paper uses accounting-based reverse engineering of market expectations to identify potentially mispriced stocks. Building upon the “errors-in-expectations” hypothesis, we develop a theoretically funded yet practical tool for stock screening in this paper. We use the Ohlson (1995) model...

This paper reviews literature on reverse engineering in equity valuation from the perspective of a fundamental investor. Despite a history of over 80 years, the literature on reverse engineering shows no clear consensus on the modelling, conceptualisation and operationalisation of the technique....

This paper discusses the benefits and drawbacks of adopting Bayesian inference for practical equity valuation and fundamental analysis and derives a decision-focused valuation model for investors. Despite the inevitably subjectivist (i.e. Bayesian) nature of equity valuation, almost all research...

The SEC's Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations (MD&A) is often claimed to provide vital "extra information" for the investment decisions of investors: information that compensates for the reporting weaknesses of financial statements. However,...