Libya's longstanding political deadlock reached breaking point with the fighting between rival militias in Tripoli in September 2018. Throughout the preceding two years of political stalemate, the UN-led approach to negotiations remained vested in defunct institutions that blocked any progress....

Recent advances by Khalifa Haftar's 'Libyan Arab Armed Forces' in southern Libya are changing power relations in Libya in ways that undermine the UN's ongoing attempts at brokering a political solution. Haftar's increasing influence implies he will be less open to concessions, while key forces...

Almost eight months into the offensive on Tripoli by Khalifa Haftar's 'Libyan Arab Armed Forces' (LAAF), the war shows no signs of abating. Ongoing diplomatic efforts are divorced from realities on the ground. The current balance of forces rules out any possibility for a return to a political...

The yearlong offensive on Tripoli by Khalifa Haftar's forces has suffered fatal setbacks, and Libya's conflicts are changing shape. Russia's and Turkey's attempts at carving out spheres of influence are bound to collide with the interests of other foreign powers and with the fluidity of Libya's...

The formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) under Abdelhamid Dabeiba in March 2021 was a breakthrough in efforts to overcome Libya's political division. But the settlement's flaws are already starting to show. So far, political actors have merely agreed to compete for access to state...

Seit dem gewaltsamen Tod von Präsident Idris Déby im April 2021 versucht die herrschende Elite im Tschad, ihre Macht durch die dynastische Nachfolge seines Sohnes Mahamat zu sichern. Mit dem Beschluss von Oktober 2022, den Übergangsprozess um zwei Jahre zu verlängern und Mahamat Déby...

Since President Idris Deby's violent death in April 2021, the ruling elite in Chad have sought to protect their hold on power by promoting the dynastic succession of his son Mahamat. The risks of this strategy are becoming clearer with the October 2022 decision to prolong the transition by...

Die seit 2011 in Libyen entstandenen bewaffneten Gruppen haben in den letzten Jahren einen Marsch durch die Institutionen vollzogen. Mittlerweile sind ihre Vertreter sowohl in Armee und Sicherheitsapparat als auch in zivilen Regierungsämtern auf der Spitzenebene angekommen. Zugleich üben sie...

Resource curse theory claims that resource abundance encourages violent conflict. A study of 37 oil-producing developing countries, however, reveals that oil states with very high levels of oil revenue are remarkably stable. An analysis of the ways in which governments spend oil revenues...