This article discusses the importance of ideology, institutions, politics, and economic knowledge for forecasting economic policies and their impact on macroeconomic developments. Following a general discussion of those factors, the article illustrates their forecasting usefulness by drawing on...

Quantifying factors giving rise to temporal variation in forest fires is important for advancing scientific understanding and improving fire prevention. We demonstrate that eighty percent of the large year-to-year variation in forest area burned in California can be accounted for by variation in...

The unprecedented consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic have raised concerns about intensified social unrest, but evidence for such a link and the underlying channels is still lacking. We use a unique combination of nationally representative survey data, event data on social unrest, and data on...

This study deals with state action through the analysis of the main administrative instruments with planning and budgeting, aiming to illustrate the different characteristics between the planning and budgeting instruments under the multi-annual perspective and to present possible risks of...

This note describes some of the early policy developments in the UK and the way in which the framing and understanding of a novel economic problem evolved to include a focus on livelihoods combining social protection and business support orientations. It highlights various points including the...

President Trump’s faux populism may deliver some immediate short-term benefits to the economy, masking the devastating long-term effects from his overall policy strategy. The latter can be termed "welfare state sabotage" and is a wholesale assault on essential public sector institutions and...

Aim/purpose - This study examined the impact of public sector spending and governance on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and further assessed the role of governance in the causal relationship between public sector spending and economic growth in the sub-region....

The possible nonlinearity of the income elasticity of child labor has been at the center of the debate regarding both its causes and the policy instruments to address it. We contribute to this debate providing theoretical and empirical novel results. From a theoretical point of view, for any...

This paper presents an update to the Economic Impact Assessment of Amount A of Pillar One of the Two Pillar Solution to Address the Tax Challenges Arising from the Digitalisation of the Economy. The revised assessment is based on Amount A as detailed in the text of the Multilateral Convention to...

The effective taxation of corporate profits is at the centre of an active public and academic debate. This debate is often focused on the extent of low-taxed profit of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in jurisdictions with low statutory tax rates or low average effective tax rates (ETRs)....