Banking system stress tests are a key component of IMF/World Bank financial stability assessments.

In this note, we gauge the likely impact of the Delta variant on global GDP growth in the second half of this year. To do so, we use the methodology described in Kamin and Kearns (2021), "Pandemic Prospects and the Global Economic Recovery," to compare projections for global GDP based on the...

This paper provides a comprehensive account of the evolution of default risk for newly originated home purchase loans since 1990. We bring together several data sources to produce this history, including loan-level data for the entire GSE book. We use these data to track a large number of loan...

Conditional value at risk (CoVaR) and marginal expected shortfall (MES) have been proposed as stock return based measures of the systemic risk created by individual financial institutions even though the literature provides no formal hypothesis test for detecting systemic risk. We address this...

This paper presents results from the third year of a multiyear, pre-committed research design for analyzing recent minimum wage changes.

This report is the first in a series of papers that will analyze the economic impact of Universal Basic Income (UBI) proposals.

Although the U.S. Supreme Court has long held that the Commerce Clause of the U.S. Constitution prohibits state taxes that discriminate against interstate commerce, it has failed to provide a clear explanation of which taxes are discriminatory. In this paper, we provide an economic analysis that...

We report three findings: (1) Using evidence from chain bankruptcies and data on 12-18 million establishments per year, we show that large retailers produce significant positive spillovers. (2) Local governments respond to the size of these externalities. When a town's boundaries allow it to...

This paper describes one of the first attempts to gauge the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global trajectory of a key measure of economic activity – industrial production – over the course of 2020. It is also among the first efforts to distinguish between the role of domestic...

Using the texts of the People’s Daily, an official publication of the Communist Party of China, the author shows that the socialist alliance between China and North Korea has significantly weakened since the Korean War.