The authors develop a quantitative indicator of the Chinese government's policy priorities over a long period of time, which they call the Policy Change Index (PCI) of China.

Analysis of data on bank-specific average PPP loan size produces results that are inconsistent with a loan demand explanation. Absent good measures of PPP loan demand, the source of the observed differences in bank PPP loan activity cannot be definitively identified using bank regulatory data alone.

Since the 2009 Supervisory Capital Assessment Program (SCAP), US regulators have employed a representative bank model as the benchmark of comparison in mandatory stress test exercises. For risk management functions, a bank's own stress model must be calibrated to reflect the bank's historical...

Over the past decade, a major effort to "end homelessness" has lead to a marked expansion in permanent housing for the homeless relative to shelters. In this paper, I use community-level data over the period 2007-2014 in the United States to estimate short and long run associations between...

Without any intervention, the novel coronavirus would cost the U.S. economy over $9 trillion.

Regulatory forecasts of bank performance over hypothetical multiyear stress scenarios are used to set financial institution minimum regulatory capital requirements in multiple jurisdictions, yet little is known about the accuracy of these supervisory stress test models.

Studies relying upon household survey data have concluded that public school teachers receive substantially lower salaries than comparably-educated private sector workers. However, any given level of formal educational attainment found in household surveys can encompass a wide range of skills as...

We propose a model of voter decision-making in proportional representation systems: ultra-rational strategic voters construct expectations of coalitions and policy outcomes based on expected seat distributions and vote to maximize their expected utility from the implemented policy. We examine...

Although COVID-19 vaccines are finally available, the rate at which they are administered is slow, and in the meantime the pandemic continues to claim about as many lives every day as the 9/11 tragedy. I estimate that with the promised rate of vaccinations, if no additional nonpharmaceutical...

COVID-19 relief legislation offers a unique setting to study how political representation shapes the distribution of federal assistance to state and local governments. We provide evidence of a substantial small-state bias: an additional Senator or Representative per million residents predicts an...