Is the Euro area as a whole, or are individual Euro-area member countries facing a period of sustained lower economic growth, a phenomenon known as secular stagnation? We tackle this question by estimating equilibrium real interest rates and comparing them to actual real rates. Since the...

Previous macro-finance term structure models (MTSMs) imply that macroeconomic state variables are spanned by (i.e., perfectly correlated with) model-implied bond yields. However, this theoretical implication appears inconsistent with regressions showing that much macroeconomic variation is...

I propose a new term structure model for euro area real and nominal interest rates which explicitly incorporates a time-varying lower bound for nominal interest rates. Results suggest that the lower bound is of importance in structural analyses implying time-varying impulse responses of yield...

We investigate the e ect of monetary policy on European macroeconomic variables using a small-scale vector autoregression (VAR) and the "Effective Monetary Stimulus" (EMS). The EMS is a monetary policy metric obtained from yield curve data that is designed to consistently reflect the overall...

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the power of forward guidance at different horizons, shedding new light on the strength of the "forward guidance puzzle". Our identification strategy allows us to disentangle the change in future interest rates stemming from deviations from the...

An asset manager's rapid liquidation in the weeks around the end of September 2014 of a very large position in eurodollar futures, a huge derivatives market that allows traders to position on the future path of dollar money rates, raises two questions. What is the profile of asset managers in...

The present study is structured in two Chapters – the first containing three Sections and the second two – as follows:(a) Chapter One focuses on the European Central Bank (ECB) within the European System of Central Banks (ESCB):• the first two Sections (A and B) briefly discuss the...

The present University notes contain a brief presentation and analysis of the legal framework governing the single monetary policy in the euro area, as this developed from the establishment of the Eurosystem until today. It is structured in four Sections: Section A deals with the definition of...

This study discusses recent and current conditions relating to financial stability in the euro area, developing, in particular, on the impact of the current “inflation crisis” on financial stability vulnerabilities. Furthermore, it addresses two related priorities for the Single Resolution...

This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that monetary policy had on its development. Using the Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique is applied here for the first time using explicit...