, indicating that there are benefits to using higher frequency measures of inflation expectations. Out of sample forecasts confirm …

. The uncertainty is large, as the 95% highest forecast density interval includes a decrease in GDP as large as 9%. A …The number of short-time workers from January to April 2020 is used to now- and forecast quarterly GDP growth. We purge … forecast quite precisely the decrease in GDP during the financial crisis. It predicts a mean decline in GDP of 5.7% over the …

. The uncertainty is large, as the 95% highest forecast density interval covers a decrease in GDP as large as 9%. A recovery … forecast quite precisely the decrease in GDP during the financial crisis. It predicts a mean decline in GDP of 5.7% over the … next two quarters. Without additional growth stimulus, the GDP level forecast remains persistently 4% lower in the long run …

vector autoregression and model averaging techniques, where aggregation takes place before, during and after the estimation … provide the most precise forecasts for a set of eleven core macroeconomic variables, including GDP growth and CPI inflation …

estimation of the different models, respectively. We find that overall the large Bayesian VAR provides the most precise forecasts … is also the only model producing unbiased forecasts at least for short horizons. While a Bayesian factor augmented VAR … with a tight prior also provides quite accurate forecasts overall, the performance of the other methods depends on the …

Most macroeconomic data is continuously revised as additional information becomes available. We suggest that revisions … of data is an increasingly important source of uncertainty about the state of the economy and offer an alternative … channel of uncertainty - data uncertainty. This paper adds on the uncertainty literature and focuses on data uncertainty …