The New Zealand Treasury forecasts tax revenue for the twice-yearly Economic and Fiscal Updates. The accuracy of these forecasts is important for the government's annual budget decisions as they affect key fiscal aggregates such as the operating balance and debt levels. Good decision-making in...

The Treasury is the New Zealand government's lead advisor on economic and financial issues. Part of this advice consists of providing the government with forecasts of economic and fiscal variables. Economic forecasts are important, not only as a basis for forecasts of tax revenue, but also in...

This paper estimates wage equations for New Zealand based on pooled data from the Household Economic Survey (HES) from 2006/07 to 2010/11. Equations are estimated separately for couple men and women, single men and women and sole parents. The results are compared to previous New Zealand...

Prognosen werden mehrfach revidiert - von den ersten vorwiegend theoriebasierten über spätere in zunehmenden Maße von den Daten bestimmten Erstellungen bis zur Veröffentlichung der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen des Statistischen Bundesamtes. In dieser Zeit ändern sich nicht nur die...

In der empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung steigt die Anzahl der Publikationen, die mit Methoden des maschinellen Lernens arbeiten. Dennoch scheint eine gewisse Skepsis zu bestehen. Ein Kritikpunkt ist, dass sich maschinelles Lernen zwar für Vorhersagen eignet, aber keine kausalen Zusammenhänge...

In this paper, we discussed the Statistical modeling of the original data series and the residuals series. Residual series has been use for the forecasting the shock occurring in the economic data series. Objective and Subjective technique has been used for the modeling.

Estimating linear rational expectations models requires replacing the expectations of future, endogenous variables either with forecasts from a fully solved model, or with the instrumented actual values, or with forecast survey data. Extending the methods of McCallum (1976) and Gottfries and...

The paper derives analytical transitions probabilities following an exogenous shock to the deterministic component in the conditional logit model. The solution draws on the postestimation distribution of the models stochastic component, identified on the basis of a direct utility maximization...