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There is a large theoretical literature on methods for estimating causal effects under unconfoundedness, exogeneity, or selection-on-observables type assumptions using matching or propensity score methods. Much of this literature is highly technical and has not made inroads into empirical...
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Credible Granger-causality analysis appears to require post-sample inference, as it is well-known that in-sample fit … terms of power relative to the in-sample Granger-causality F test, is manageable. An illustrative application is given, to a …
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the natural rate. As a side test of the endogeneity hypothesis, we also test for the direction of causality between …
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This paper proposes a new method for empirically validate simulation models that generate artificial time series data comparable with real-world data. The approach is based on comparing structures of vector autoregression models which are estimated from both artificial and real-world data by...
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This paper contributes to the literature on the estimation of causal effects by providing an analytical formula for individual specific treatment effects and an empirical methodology that allows us to estimate these effects. We derive the formula from a general model with minimal restrictions,...
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