only a coarse picture of inflation beliefs further away from zero. Using data from the Bundesbank household panel, we show …Central bank surveys frequently elicit households' probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. The responses provide … that the current high-inflation environment induces respondents to allocate considerable probability to the rightmost open …

average markups along with monetary policy play a role in the transmission of household uncertainty to inflation. These …I construct a novel measure of household uncertainty based on survey data for European countries. I show that household … uncertainty shocks do not universally behave like negative demand shocks. Notably, household uncertainty shocks are largely …

We use a representative online survey to investigate the inflation expectations of German consumers and the credibility … of the ECB's inflation target during the recent high inflation period. We find that credibility has trended downwards … since summer 2021, reaching an all-time low in April 2022. The high correlation between inflation expectations and the …

We study the link between expected inflation and wages using novel panel data from German firms and employees. We find … that pass-through - the percentage point change in wage growth given a one percentage point change in expected inflation … extensive margin, expected inflation has little effect on additional wage negotiations. …

We study the link between expected inflation and wages using novel panel data from German firms and employees. We find … that pass-through—the percentage point change in wage growth given a one percentage point change in expected inflation … margin, expected inflation has little effect on additional wage negotiations. …

consumer response behavior and the corresponding inflation expectations. To this end, survey participants from a representative … asking for their subjective distribution for inflation over the next 12 months. As part of the experiment, two competing … inflation rate. In addition, I compare the responses to a question asking for consumers’ probabilistic beliefs about future …

Survey-based expectations are mostly used by monetary authorities for inflation forecasts and evaluation of the … credibility of their inflation fighting policies. It is also an important link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This … study examined the predictive ability of business expectations survey (BES) inflation index on movements of inflation as …

This paper examines the nexus between news coverage on inflation and households' inflation expectations. In doing so … household-level data from the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan. We highlight a fundamental disconnection … between news on inflation, consumers' frequency of expectation updating and the accuracy of their expectations. Our evidence …

and second moments of inflation expectations separately affect subsequent household decisions. We document several key …We implement a survey-based randomized information treatment that generates independent variation in the inflation … expectations and the uncertainty about future inflation of European households. This variation allows us to assess how both first …

restriction measures and local unemployment rates on inflation expectations. We find that consumers who were locally more exposed … to COVID-19 cases report higher inflation expectations. ‘e relationship between the virus spread and inflation …